VR may fail like a 3D TV.

Compared with 3D, VR seems to have a brighter future in the family. However, the analogy between the two is not wrong. VR is tepid at the start and risks are rising. Industry executives can only focus on the longer-term future.

In the years since 2000, many large companies in the technology and entertainment industries have clamored for 3D TV. They say that 3D TV is a new immersive showcase for home theater that can take you to the center of action.

However, 3D TVs do not usher in their golden age in the living room. Consumers are reluctant to spend money on higher-priced TVs. There is little new content, and viewers have to wear heavy glasses.

Today, VR faces the same obstacles. Take a look at most consumer-grade VR systems sold today, such as Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and Sony PlayStation VR, which are not only expensive, but also complicated to install. For now, the helmet must be connected to an expensive computer to run. Sony PS VR is connected to the game console.

Lack of killer content, wearing large helmets, and uncomfortable use, some people are dizzy, tired, and even trapped in isolation.

Andrew House, CEO of Sony Interactive Entertainment, said: "This is just VR 1.0."

Alexa Kipman, a Microsoft operating system technician, also said: "We need to eliminate friction." Microsoft is developing MR products to integrate VR and AR technologies.

In the consumer field, immersive experiences provided by VR products are quite different. The basic entry product is Google Cardboard, which is driven by a smartphone. It can only allow consumers to experience it and see what the technology is and what the possibilities are. Going upstairs with mobile helmets, such as Google Daydream and Samsung Gear VR, all of these devices provide flawed experiences that can only support some smartphones.

Microsoft's strategy is not the same. It developed HoloLens, aimed specifically at enterprise users. Microsoft simplified the device and launched a 299 US dollar VR helmet. It began selling in October. This is a set of glasses-type devices that connect to the mainstream with cables. PC. Hardware partners HP, Lenovo, Dell, Acer, and Asustek all participated.

The last is Vive, Rift and PlayStation VR, which provide the most vivid experience. However, these devices require computers or game consoles to operate, which seriously restricts the development of VR helmets. In general, VR-enabled PCs cost $1,000 or more.

In the end, the company lowered its product prices, the demand was weak, and analysts expected poor results.

Despite this, SuperData Research still believes that the scale of the VR market will reach 283 billion U.S. dollars by 2020 and only 1.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2016.

It is an obstacle to let people experience VR. According to Magid's report, only one-third of people aged 18 to 64 experienced VR. Despite this, the data still brings some optimistic news: 84% of people who have experienced VR on mobile devices recommend it to others; 86% of those who have used PCs or game consoles recommend it to others.

Magid also said that Netflix VR and Minecraft VR are the most used apps so far. Facebook, Google, Samsung, Sony, HTC are the most famous. In 2014, Facebook also spent 3 billion US dollars to acquire Oculus.

Looking at the sales of Rift, it is quite weak. Recently, the company was forced to lower the price of helmets and Touch controllers. It was not only reduced once, but twice. In the summer promotion, the price of package products dropped to 399 US dollars, which was a drop of 200 US dollars from the original price; After the Labor Day, it returned to 499 US dollars.

Jason Rubin, vice president of Oculus content, said the price reduction is in line with the company's plan. He said: "As with any revolutionary technology, it takes time to mature the content, business, price, etc., and allow the mass market to accept it."

Can you really succeed? Not necessarily. Looking through the Yearbook of Technology, there are many new ideas for hardware and software, but they can't take off because they can't touch the "sweet spot" of consumers. Remember Google Glass and Betamax? There is one thing that the industry lacks. Large VR companies have noticed that it is killer VR applications.

Rubin said: "The reason why 3D TVs are not taking off is because content is not attractive enough. Film producers don't feel that it is necessary to create something unique for it. It makes products easier to use and encourages users to jump into VR. The world, which allows developers to easily develop VR content, is our mission."

The company is still experimenting. Tom Harding, Head of Samsung Immersion Products, said: “This is a brand new language. How to use it to tell stories and how to let users interact with VR. We are still exploring. Half of the fun comes from this.” He gave an example of architecture. The instructor asked the client to put on a Gear VR helmet and browse the building before the construction of the building to let them imagine what daylight changes will give the residents what kind of experience.

The Samsung Gear VR has installed 5 million units. Although the numbers are gratifying, there are many helmets that are free to use for mobile sales.

VR users will feel lonely, this is a problem, VR must succeed to solve this problem.

Linden Lab has recently added new content to Sansa's social VR platform because of its reputation for developing Second Life.

Another company is also developing social VR products, which is AltspaceVR. In July of this year, AltspaceVR suddenly announced the closure of the platform because the company consumed cash and later survived due to the investor’s support platform. The virtual portal continues to be open to everyone.

As a social network pioneer, Facebook has also made bold plans to turn VR into a place to hang around. It has developed Facebook Spaces for Rift and Oculus Rooms for Gear VR. These are early experiments.

At the same time, Facebook is still betting on AR, and some people may be confused with VR and AR. Both technologies use computer vision, but there are obvious differences: In the VR world, you are completely surrounded by immersive environments and you don't see the reality; AR is not the same, it provides a transmissive experience, digital Characters and objects blend with real life.

Facebook’s Rubin and other VR experts believe that the two technologies are complementary and that they have many of the same challenges and use many of the same technologies. Rubin said: "The advancement of this technology is beneficial to his technology."

Some manufacturers think that AR will be the ultimate winner. In June, Apple launched ARKit at the WWDC conference. This set of tools is for developers. Soon iOS 11 will be logged into the iPhone and iPad, which includes ARKit. Loup Ventures analyst Loup Ventures believes that only Google ARCore can make AR grow.

Frank Soqui, general manager of Intel's VR Group, believes that AR and VR are not zero-sum games, and companies can develop two technologies at the same time.

In the field of VR, Intel actively develops live sports experience. This summer, Intel and MLB used VR live games. Through its own Ture VR platform, Intel will use VR to play the 2018 Korean Summer Games.

If the consumer does not accept it, the company may accept it.

Lowes has developed a DIY training tool called Holoroom. After the client puts on the HTC Vive helmet, he can know how the bathroom is installed with the tiles and how the fence brush paints. UPS also recently launched a training program to allow newly arrived delivery drivers to wear Vive helmets to learn how to identify road hazards in the virtual world.

There are many challenges to technology and these challenges cannot be resolved overnight. Although it takes time, analyst Munster is still optimistic about the prospects for the development of VR, because the virtual world is increasingly difficult to distinguish from the real world, and this kind of experience stimulates consumers. He said: "In the next 10 years, there will be some technologies to become revolutionary technologies. VR is one of them." He believes that the ultimate VR will have a huge impact on our work and social life.

Microsoft's Kipman also said: "How quickly can consumers accept VR? I think everyone's predictions are a little too optimistic. The pendulum is swinging to the other end, which means people are too pessimistic about the popularity of VR."

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