Millet smart speakers have begun to test or become or fail

Reading: From the stage of listing, Xiaomi speakers still have a long way to go. At the current stage of beta testing, whether successful or not, there will be stakeholders and losers. In any case, Xiaomi Smart Speaker has indeed become a leader in this industry.

Millet smart speakers have begun beta testing, which means that it is not far from the official listing date, and the listing is not only a big test, almost equivalent to playing cards in a wink two eyes: either or not into. Unlike other manufacturers, the success of millet smart speakers will not only affect millet, but also affect the entire industry.


Millet smart speaker's success and failure

Personally, it is not possible for Xiaomi to feel that the more difficult to shake the gates of popularity and the first wave of seed users. Millet smart speakers really test, after the listing of word of mouth, which is almost the only decisive point. The core influencing factors of this word of mouth are in fact technology and content, and have nothing to do with the scene. From the user's point of view to understand whether the smart speaker is successful has actually gone astray.

First of all, because the speaker is an existing category (the pricing of Xiaomi's speaker can cause it to cover the Bluetooth speaker market with the largest sales volume), followed by QQ music, the Himalayan has fully explained that even in the pure audio media field, the user base is large enough. The reason why many people will interpret the situation from the establishment of the scene, and doubt that smart speakers may not be successful, the root cause may be misunderstood the sales needed for the success of a new category - smart speakers never need to sell to the mobile phone or Flat sales.

As far as smart speakers are concerned, assuming that the first wave of sales will have 500,000 units, sales will continue to grow to 2 million if driven by word-of-mouth. That is basically the case. For new universal products, it is estimated that it will be very difficult for a new product to rush out of the sales curve of smart phones for a long time (iPhone 6.69 million units in the sixth quarter, it is almost impossible to replicate on other products), but this does not mean that Sales of 2 million to 3 million in a single quarter or six months are failed products.



Judging from the evaluation made by Acoustics Online, Xiaomi's smart speaker experience is still far from perfect, but it has spanned the available points in the voice interactive experience, and then considers millet integrated enough content in the smart speaker, so Xiaomi Starting the smart speaker market is a high probability event.

and then? Who will benefit and who will be injured?

Who will benefit?

Beyond Xiaomi, the most direct beneficiary is the technology provider. Once Xiaomi succeeds, all the technology providers in the far-field voice interactive track will immediately split into two categories: technology providers that have been verified by large-scale user use and technology providers that have not been used by large-scale users (so-called use authentication. , Including a lot of things, including the amount of data, including numerous polished technical details, etc.).

One of the core technology providers announced at the Xiaomi conference was a startup company, Shengzhi Technology, which mainly provided the core wake-up, noise reduction, echo cancellation, and beamforming algorithms for far-field voice interaction. If the Xiaomi smart speaker succeeds, this technology provider may be able to open up the gap with its competitors in the far-field voice interaction.

The other three are big companies that have been relatively successful. SBCI has been established for a longer period of time. In the past, it had a long-term competitive game with the HKUST Newsflash, but it did not prevail. However, this pattern may change due to Xiaomi's smart speakers. Also providing voice recognition for Xiaomi is Sogou and Nuance, but the benefit of these two companies will be smaller, and it is likely that they are more on BD.

The second beneficiary is likely to be a colleague of smart speaker products. This is much like the paradox of sensationalism, because it seems that these peers should be listed on the injured list. In order to see this, some predictions and deductions need to be made. The core judgment here is whether the increase in sales brought about by the start of the market will offset the decline in sales brought about by the dilution of shares.



Assuming that Xiaomi successfully launched the smart speaker market, then the end user is only selected Xiaomi smart speakers, or will choose to differentiate? If it is a differentiated choice, then for other smart speaker manufacturers, as long as the market is fully activated, sales will certainly have a substantial increase. Unless it is the price of the product, there is an extreme contrast in the brand. Judging from the results of the Acoustic Online test, this type of thing can cost a little more than a thousand dollars, because the price is the most expensive, but the performance is the weakest in all aspects.

The reality is that, until now, end users have been making differentiated choices in the audio category.

The stronger the objective functionalities of electronic products are, the smaller the subjective differences of the products themselves are, the less likely they are to have multiple brands, and the easier it is for the family to be single, such as computers; in turn, the more subjective the functionalities of electronic products are, the more preferred they are. The heavier the weight, the easier it is to have multiple brands. Smart speakers are more subjective in function, who can clearly define what sound quality is good, and what sound quality is not good? The intelligent properties of smart speakers are actually subjective in the short term, because usually we only have intelligence in the vertical domain.

Who is injured?

The reason why the smart speaker has attracted much attention is because the far-field speech interaction represented by it is very imaginative, which injects a lot of colors for future tickets. In the past 30 years, there has never been an industry like smart speakers that attracted the attention of all technology giants before the market started.

It is also because of the future-oriented properties of smart speakers, if the success of Xiaomi smart speakers, will lead to "three hearts and two meanings" collective smart speaker manufacturers to hurt. Unfortunately, almost all manufacturers of smart speakers have been "three hearts and two meanings" so far. Everyone is emphasizing intelligence, platforms, and the future rather than pure speakers. Even some startups can't wait to start an open platform initiative when their products are far from successful.



What's even more interesting is that this kind of injury doesn't come from the fact that sales haven't picked up, but comes from sales that have picked up but ideally have been compressed. As mentioned above, once Xiaomi started the industry, sales of each product will actually increase. However, the increase does not mean that it hopes to expand. In turn, it may mean that hope is shattered. Assuming Xiaomi sells 5 million units, the Tmall Spirit also rises synchronously, but in the end it only has 500,000, which may not be a good thing for the team of Tmall Elf.

Secondly, the internet giants, such as Tencent, who would be suspicious of this category of smart speakers will be injured and may trigger a chain reaction. Perhaps the final market capacity of smart speakers is only tens of millions of units per year, but in the long run it will represent an admission ticket. Once this category is firmly established, it is likely to be in the next 3 to 5 years. At this point in time, this type of interaction will quickly invade unplugged large categories, such as mobile phones, tablets, and laptops. Obviously, manufacturers of smart speakers will take the lead.

As a result, things tend to be complicated. We know that most music copyrights are in the hands of Tencent. From the perspective of QQ music itself, this is an economic issue. As long as someone can afford it, it is OK to open the interface. However, from the perspective of Tencent overall, it is very likely that he does not want to see Xiaomi's huge success. Therefore, once Xiaomi has achieved great success, it will be very subtle to see how Tencent will deal with the injured.

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