A classic question in philosophy of science is how the correctness of the inductive method is guaranteed. Popper’s answer is: falsification theory. But this answer did not completely solve the problem.

In the philosophy of science, the correctness of the deductive method does not need to be proved, because this is essentially a definition, an agreement, as long as it can be logically self-consistent, it is right. For example, Popper takes dialectical logic as an example. He said that dialectical logic is 1+1=0, and 1+1=2 is also true. Of course, this definition is OK, and there is nothing wrong with it. It is just that such a logical system is useless.

That question is coming: What kind of logic system is useful?

Associating with the first question, the result of my epiphany is that the reason why induction is established is actually because it is useful. We choose the current deductive logic system because it is useful.

Why is induction useful? In essence, there is a certain regularity in the world. One thing happened, under the "same" condition, it will happen again. Because of this regularity, induction is useful. Deductive logic is similar.

But thinking like this is actually shallow.

Because of thinking behaviors and cognitive psychology, I have some scattered ideas about human cognition. When I look at "Thinking, Fast and Slow," there is such a question: Why do humans have so many errors and deviations in their cognitive abilities? For example, one of the deviations is that, based on obviously insufficient information, humans can naturally make some inferences that are not logically true. Why is this happening? It's easy to understand: even in the absence of information, humans need to make judgments, even if there is a big probability of error. Otherwise, the result is even worse. Therefore, many cognitive deviations of human beings are actually an imperfect but useful strategy when resources are insufficient.

Based on this, looking back at the above questions, there is a new inspiration: humans have chosen inductive and deductive methods because they are useful, so they are solidified into human instinct through evolution.

It can even be further inferred that the world is like this, not the way it is, but it does not necessarily count because the world itself is, but because certain perspectives and certain laws are most useful to human beings, and thus are observed by humans in this way. , presented as such a look.

It can be seen that the regularity of the world is a means to simplify the understanding of the world when human cognition is insufficient.

The essence of artificial intelligence is that because of its strong computing power, it no longer relies heavily on this simplification, but directly on a complex, less regular world.

The complexity of the world, and the inadequacy of human intelligence, have actually been exposed before artificial intelligence. The systematic theory that emerged after the Second World War is a research idea and attempt for this complex world. But the actual effect, in the eyes of my layman, is really lacking. Although there are some important theoretical discoveries such as fractals, chaos, etc., it is still a hundred thousand miles away from the world that can strictly calculate and predict complexities.

For example, modern medicine, the so-called laws that are now discovered, are actually related, often only slightly higher than 50%. The principle behind it is simply impossible to explain. Human beings cannot simplify objects by traditional means, and obtain effective laws; the correlations they can obtain are also the result of barbaric regression, without any interpretability, and thus are completely difficult to understand and can only be memorized. It should be said that in the face of such complex areas, human intelligence is obviously insufficient; compared with the barbaric computing and barbaric statistical regression of computers, there is no advantage.

To give another example, you can see this more clearly: if we take pi=3.14. . The figures of each of them form a sequence and do some kind of application; each digit is deterministic, but can humans discover the law from it and use it to simplify understanding and analyze and predict its application results? Not at all feasible. Can only be handed over to the computer, barbaric computing, forcing results.

Overall, I believe that human intelligence is nearing the end. After all, human intelligence evolved from the evolutionary period of the organism, facing a relatively simple world, a relatively simple target; while the modern human being facing the world, the tasks it faces are much more complicated, and human instinct intelligence is insufficient. It is not surprising to be competent.

The idea of ​​artificial intelligence is that it is no longer necessary to try to find the simple ones that can be expressed by formulas, which can be easily understood by human beings; and the statistical laws, barbaric operations, and conclusions can be obtained directly according to big data.

Another example is Go. In addition to local structure and regularity, Gomoku can be simplified and analyzed by logic reasoning. It seems to be unstructured as a whole. Its strategy is irregular and can only be barbaric or barbaric. Go is much better, its strategy is more structural, and humans have developed many rules (various moves). Among them, the Orientals most like to brag about the road, in essence, the law that has a certain regularity, but can not be strictly defined and described.

But whether it is the maturity of the trick, or the immature way, they are defeated under the barbaric computing of artificial intelligence. After the fig leaf was torn off, what kind of intelligence does humanity have, which is impossible for computers? Even some of the tricks of the computer when playing chess, human interpretation can not explain, this may be that human intelligence has not yet been able to discover the laws behind it, or it may be that there is no regularity that humans can understand.

I have not analyzed the human emotions, etc., whether it will be beyond the artificial intelligence. But this may not make sense. If human beings become useless, then whether human emotions are useful or not is inherently suspicious.

Artificial intelligence makes people useless, how bad the consequences will be

Most people say that the threat of artificial intelligence is that robots rule humans. This of course requires vigilance. But now I feel more and more that there are more pressing challenges waiting for human beings, that is, human beings become useless and have a series of consequences. The latter said that it brought political challenges.

Some people think that, like all kinds of technological advances in the past, people are useless. As a result, human beings have found other places to use and live better and better.

But I think that no matter how many repetitions in the past, it can't be proved that this will be the next time. I think that artificial intelligence is quite likely to be no longer a repetition.

The fundamental difference is that artificial intelligence will make human beings useless in all directions, so humans can't find other shelters.

Even this cannot solve the problem through market regulation: if the auxiliary costs of hiring human labor (such as office, management costs, etc.) exceed the cost of using artificial intelligence, human labor will become worthless.

By then, most people's labor will become worthless and not needed. Only a few people have labor value.

By then, humanity will face political decisions.

One option is liberalism + the survival of the fittest. The end result is that a small number of people have a good job income to become the top of society, and most people are being marginalized and eliminated. If this class differentiation is solidified, then it is not impossible to divide into two species in the long-term isolation and evolution, such as the case in the movie Time Machine.

Another option is egalitarianism in a certain sense. On the premise of being willing to work, the job opportunities are evenly distributed, such as the January work system. I am personally pessimistic and think that the former is more likely. The results of civilization in human society are ultimately derived from human beings. When people are useful, they have the capital of the game and strive for a living environment that is conducive to their own, thus making the society more and more civilized.

Humans hunt down hostile tribe members to slavery because human labor can create more value than slavery. From slavery to renting, mankind is because the labor value of mankind has increased, and the labor enthusiasm of mobilizing slaves through renting has become profitable. Human beings enter the modern democratic system because of the development of industry and commerce, which further enhances the value of human beings. The war between nations and nations must mobilize the general public more and increase the value of the latter. It is necessary to know that the modern welfare system, The earliest or earliest batch was born during the most conservative German Bismarck period. In fact, some people believe that the progress of China's reform and opening up and the main driving force for future democratization is that people are becoming more and more valuable.

Conversely, if human beings become useless, all human civilization's achievements can be lost. You are useless, why should I give you benefits and give you rights?

On political issues, I advocate the principle of reciprocity of power and strength. This is both true and true. Without sufficient strength, it is impossible to maintain the corresponding power. If there is sufficient strength but no corresponding power, the strength will rise up and resist the result that social unrest is difficult to maintain for a long time; Therefore, in the long run, the two must always be equal.

Democracy is the result of rising public power and rising power, and behind it is that the public has become more and more valuable and more and more useful. If the public becomes more and more useless, its power and even the loss of welfare will be inevitable. Just as the Roman Republic fell into the Roman Empire, the Weimar Republic fell into the Third Reich. Like Trump's coming to power, there is nothing that can't be imagined. When the time comes, everything will become logical and reasonable.

Iwatch Touch

Dongguan Jili Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.jlglassoca.com