PCB industry observed in the fourth quarter

Observing the traditional peak season for PCBs entering the industry, the overall demand should show a growth trend compared to the second quarter. However, due to the excessive inventory establishment of some brand manufacturers in the second quarter, adjustments must be made so that PCB manufacturers' operating growth momentum in the third quarter is limited. . At present, terminal demand, including PC, LCD/LEDTV, and China Netcom, has not seen any significant demand for goods during the peak season. Only the demand for tablet PCs and smart phones is relatively stable. It is expected that the overall quarter revenue of the PCB industry will only grow by 5-10%. The single-quarter revenue of the plant is expected to have a growth rate of 15 to 20%. The single-quarter operating performance is still better than that of the hard board factory.

Due to the dull sales in the upper-middle-stream materials plant in August, the prices of copper foil and copper foil substrates may decline in September. Observed that in August, the monthly revenue of glass fiber yarn and fabric mills fell by 10% to 15%, and the single-month revenue of copper foil baseplate plants declined or slightly increased. It is estimated that the material factories in the upper and middle reaches in September only recovered slightly from August. With the weakening of international copper prices, the price of copper foil and copper foil substrate products also showed a slight decline in September. Therefore, the single-quarter revenue of the upper-middle and upper reaches of the PCB material plant grew by only 5-10% in the fourth quarter. In the traditional off-season, single-quarter revenue will decline from the third quarter.

Observing that PCB rigid boards are still relatively stable with HDI board demand, it is estimated that the overall third-quarter revenue will grow only slightly by 5-10%. In August, the hard board factory recorded better revenue for mobile phone boards, while the other photovoltaic panels and NB boards did not show significant improvement, showing a slight increase or a slight increase, due to the overall terminal demand including PC/NB, Monitor, TV and other peak seasons. The situation is determined, so the growth rate of performance is suppressed.

However, benefiting from the sales of smart phones and tablet computers, and the continuous fermentation of the soft board special effects, the single-month revenues of Taichung County and Jia Lianyi have all hit historical highs in a single month. September single-month revenue is expected to continue growing upwards from August, and the single-quarter operating performance of soft board factories will still be better than that of hard board factories. Quarterly revenue is expected to grow by about 15 to 20%.

The legal person stated that the daily earthquake affected the manufacturer’s procurement arrangement. Since March’s Nihon earthquake, the manufacturers established the stock in April and May, the Japanese company resumed work in May, and the manufacturers adjusted their inventory at the end of June. In July and August, the US and European debt companies placed their orders in the third quarter conservatively. ; And the third quarter was affected by the economy and inventory adjustments, so that the overall PCB manufacturers performance growth rate is lower than the original estimate.

In the past, the PCB manufacturers' revenue growth in the third quarter was about 20 to 30%. The revenue began to rise in July, with the high point falling in September and October. The fourth quarter entered the end of the busy season, and revenue fell by about 10%. However, there has been a huge gap in the performance of the manufacturers this year. According to a legal person, smart phones and tablet computers account for a large proportion of camp revenue, short-term revenue is expected to continue to slowly increase, while the photovoltaic and NB board suppliers have weaker kinetic energy, but the current observation of electronic manufacturers Inventory status, the fourth quarter inventory adjustment is expected to complete, the quarterly revenue decline to about 5%.

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