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Shuiqing Muhua recently published "2009 Global and China OLED Industry Research Report", saying that OLED, a self-luminous display technology, should theoretically cost far less than TFT-LCD because it does not require polarizers, backlight modules and color. Filters, and raw material costs are at least 70% lower than TFT-LCD. But OLEDs have always been in an incapable position to grow and develop. Since 2009, active OLEDs have begun to emerge, and OLED TVs have begun to show up, and the pace of OLEDs has begun to accelerate. However, there are still bottlenecks.
The bottleneck of OLED is that its luminescent material has very poor anti-oxidation ability after being energized, and vacuum glass sealing is needed to prevent oxidation. This has relegated the old way of TFT-LCD. Since the OLED is a current type device and requires a relatively high current drive, an LTPS TFT substrate is required.
LTPS is destined to cost high OLEDs, and the OLED production line is not inferior to the traditional TFT-LCD. At this stage, OLEDs are sold at a loss. Even in mass production, the cost cannot be compared with the cost of traditional TFT-LCD. Most of the TFT-LCD panel factories have already completed the amortization of some old production lines, while the output is huge. LTPS TFT technology is only available in a few large TFT-LCD manufacturers. The attitude of these large TFT-LCD manufacturers to OLED is critical. Unless these manufacturers have fully mastered the production of OLEDs, they will not easily invest, which determines that OLEDs are limited to a few manufacturers, such as Samsung. Basically, Samsung is a big one, which is very unfavorable for the development of the industry.
OLEDs must get rid of LTPS TFT substrates, otherwise it is difficult to compete with traditional TFT-LCDs. Then there is the problem of resolution. The resolution of the same size OLED is not easy to compare with the conventional TFT-LCD. That is to say, the pixel distribution of the OLED is not high, so the OLED is suitable for a slightly larger size, such as more than 3 inches, but the size is too large, and the cost advantage is even worse.
Since SMD dominates the small-size OLED field, other manufacturers have developed large-size OLEDs, and large-size OLEDs cannot be applied to LTPS technology because LTPS is up to 4.5 generation lines. And even if it is higher 6 or 7 generations, the cost competitiveness is extremely poor.
Since most of the resources are in the hands of Samsung SMD, the OLED display is only promoted by Samsung, so the future small-size AM OLED will not have much room for development. In addition to Samsung, Samsung does not have the upstream resources of AM OLED, and the price of OLED is still slightly higher than TFT-LCD. It is estimated that by 2012, OLED screens in mobile phones will only account for 5% of the mobile phone screen market.
In terms of OLED TV, only 11 inches of Sony and 15 inches of LG are currently commercialized, and the price is extremely high because the yield is extremely low (less than 30%), and TFT-LCD can reach more than 99%. None of the manufacturers that have the ability and potential to manufacture OLED TVs are TFT-LCD manufacturers. These manufacturers will not devote themselves to OLED TVs before investing in TFT-LCDs.
OLEDs are also very limited in terms of equipment. At present, OLED production equipment is only TOKKI and ULVAC. TOKKI is the main force, and its glass substrate size is only 370mm*470mm. Its luminescent materials are mainly DuPont, BASF and Idemitsu. These chemical giants do not have much interest in this market with only 1% TFT-LCD.
Compared with TFT-LCD, OLED and LCD-LCD 75% of the cost comes from raw materials. Regardless of the size of the production line, the proportion of TFT-LCD raw materials will not decrease, while the cost of raw materials in OLEDs is less than 25%. With the development of TFT-LCD, it is no longer possible to further reduce costs. Once the OLED yield is increased to 70%, TFT-LCD has no place. The megatrend has determined that OLED is the star of the future. 