In August, the rhythm of the divorce of the Olympic Games and Wang Baoqiang has put the aesthetics of many audiences to fatigue. Let's change the topic today.

The sales data of new energy vehicles in July has just been released, which has attracted many short-term focus. Most of the bullets emphasize that sales volume has dropped by 18% from the previous month, and it is difficult to complete the annual target of 700,000. The future development is worrying. In the bearish hands, the data became a little girl who was ugly, and the smart car stood in a positive angle, talking about the highlights that the shorts deliberately ignored and some of the characteristics of the current situation.

In January and July, the year-on-year surge, the overall development trend was rapid, and the total proportion of new energy vehicles reached 1.4%.

1. The year-on-year surge was 98.1%, which was affected by the seasonal characteristics of the market.

From the curve of electric vehicle sales over the years, the auto market is subject to seasonal fluctuations, and a drop of 18% from the previous month does not mean that the development of new energy vehicles has declined.

As we all know, the year-on-year and the ring have different comparative significance, which is more likely to highlight the difference in state within the same time node. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July, China’s new energy vehicle sales were 36,000, a surge of 98.1% year-on-year. The United States grew by 48% year-on-year in July, leading the world in China.

2. The overall trend is relatively fast, with a total proportion of 1.4%.

From the overall sales volume of 207,000 vehicles in January-July, the growth rate of 122.8% is also extremely explosive. Among them, the sales of pure electric vehicles are 153,000, up 160.9% year-on-year; the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles are 54,000. It increased by 57.6% year-on-year.

What is more worthy of expectation is that with the development in recent years, the sales volume of 207,000 electric vehicles in January-July is 1.4% compared with the total sales volume of new cars in China from January to July, which is 1.48%, and the future development period is expected to be 1.4%. .

Commercial vehicles are the main disaster areas for new energy vehicles, and are affected by multiple factors such as the macro situation and the characteristics of large customers. The following analysis of passenger car data is closer to market demand.

Second, several characteristics of passenger car sales structure

1. Restricted purchase + subsidized city is still the main area of ​​consumption

The advantages of first-tier cities represented by Kitakami-Guangshen and other cities in terms of car subsidies and vehicle licensing still occupy a large market share of new energy vehicles. Taking Beijing as an example, the share of new energy vehicles in the new car market is from In 2015, the proportion of 1.5% rose to 6.2% in 2016, and Shanghai was above 5% in the past two years.

2, the proportion of pure electric power is high, and the plug-in type is steadily improved.

Pure electric has always been the main force in China's new energy auto market. The market share in the past 12 years is as high as 85.9%. However, in the past two years, plug-in hybrids have gradually emerged, and the market share has stabilized at more than 30%.

3. The best-selling model transitions to medium and large vehicles

All along, the Chinese electric vehicle market has been said to be “one big and one small and two small”. In recent years, the situation has changed significantly. The “small” A00/A0 model is still the main market, but the meaning of “big” It has been changed from an electric bus to a medium and large passenger car.

The rise of the A-class electric vehicle is the main reason for the change pattern. In the pure electric vehicle market in 2016, the market share of the A-class vehicle has increased to 34%, and the plug-in hybrid vehicle market is the main player of the medium and large-sized cars.

4, plug-in SUV or become a new explosion point

SUV has always been the highlight of the Chinese auto market. Plug-in hybrid vehicles have circumvented the current urban vehicle charging problem. Plug-in SUVs have become a new explosion point for electric vehicles. The high-end market, foreign models BMW X5, Mercedes-Benz GLE, Volvo XC90, Audi Q7 e-tron 2.0TFSI and so on occupied the position early.

In the low-end market, BYD Tang, for example, has been listed in June 15th, and the cumulative sales have reached 40,541. The data of BYD Tang is bound to attract many independent car companies to follow suit.

5. Competitive situation: BYD's EV advantage narrows and continues to monopolize the PHEV market

In 2015, China's electric passenger car market sold 176,627 vehicles, BYD's family contributed 62,000 vehicles, accounting for 35.1%. Since this year, with SAIC, BAIC, GAC, Geely, Changan, Jianghuai and other independent brands increased the supply of pure electric products In strength, BYD's competitive advantage in the EV field has gradually narrowed, but it has taken an absolute market share in the field of plug-in hybrids.

On August 2, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Measures for the Management of Carbon Equity for New Energy Vehicles”, which forced the auto companies to accelerate their efforts to supply new energy vehicles from the supply side, and at the same time paved the way for national subsidies and related preferential exits.

The management plan is scheduled to start in 2017 and will be officially implemented in 2018. The introduction of the method will create a more severe environment for the overall transformation of China's auto industry. The next two years will be the key year for China's electric vehicles. We will wait and see.

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