Thanks to its good reputation, the Model 3 won orders for 400,000 units once it was released last year, and Tesla also saw the Model 3 as a turning point for electric vehicles entering the mainstream market. However, the fate of Model 3 is still in doubt. On July 28th, it will face a new test-delivery ceremony.

Tesla is standing at the crossroads. If it succeeds, it will be able to completely open the sales of electric vehicles. If it fails, it may end soon. Of course, it may also encounter the kind of situation between the two.

“The next 12 months are very important to Tesla,” said Karl Brauer, executive publisher and analyst of Autotrader and Kelly Blue Book. The Model 3 and a number of cheap electric vehicles may be able to push this type of product to the mainstream this time, which is absolutely significant for electric vehicles.

Today's electric vehicles are ushering in a period of gold development, and their costs are rapidly declining. According to Bloomberg's new energy economic forecast, the cost of electric vehicles will be lower than traditional fuel vehicles by 2025. In the next two years, almost all automakers will introduce pure-electric models.

In the second quarter of this year, Tesla suffered a shortage of battery packs and sales fell. Of course, the issue of losses is still accompanied, but the advent of the electric age can provide them with some help. Analysts believe that the electric car giant needs to achieve the goal of achieving output and quality in the future, and to defend its leading position in the electric vehicle market.

Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told investors that Tesla's production capacity will increase to 500,000 units in 2018 with more self-produced parts and components.

"The Model 3 is the first model in Tesla history that is easy to mass-produce, which is the fundamental difference between it and its predecessors," said Musk.

If Tesla can successfully achieve its set production targets, they will be able to double the number of electric cars on the US road to 300,000 by the end of next year.

Gil Tal of the University of California Davis's plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle research center believes that Tesla's high-end models have changed the entire market. "I think the Model 3 also has the same power, and its attractiveness may surpass all models on the market," Tal said.

A number of studies have found that consumers are now more concerned with practical problems, such as the cost of electric vehicles compared with traditional fuel vehicles.

For example, the pure electric Chevrolet Bolt is priced at 37,500 U.S. dollars. Even if it can get a federal subsidy of 7,500 U.S. dollars and a California subsidy of 2,500 U.S. dollars, the car is still more expensive than a petrol model. In addition, one thing to note is that GM will lose $9,000 each time it sells a Bolt.

San Francisco councillor Phil Ting proposed that the government provide more subsidies for electric vehicle users, at least let the electric cars be "equal to the price" of traditional fuel vehicles. It is reported that California Senators are considering this proposal.

“I think that the rate of increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles is still not fast enough,” stressed Steve Chadima, vice chairman of the Clean Energy Business Association AEE.

Analysts also warned that the Model 3 definitely can't repeat the mistakes of Tesla's early models. Vehicle quality and software stability must pass, and some unexpected minor problems must be eliminated. If the Model 3 fails to meet the expectations of a broader consumer group, Tesla’s plans for electric pickups, minivans and semi-trailers may be overshadowed.

Brauer believes that Tesla must prove that he can build a reliable car and has a complete after-sales service network. After all, after a large number of Model 3s have entered the market, Tesla's existing charging network may be in short supply.

Over the past few years, Tesla’s supercharging stations have been rapidly expanding. In the future, they will add 100 service centers, 350 mobile service vehicles and 1,500 service personnel.

Brauer said that since Tesla's electric vehicles have a longer range, they have a five-year first-mover advantage. “In the past, Tesla was the dealer of the electric vehicle market, but soon the group of wolves will come.” Brauer said.

Although the growth rate has decreased in the past two years, the electric vehicle market is still maintaining rapid growth. The International Energy Agency estimates that it took only one year to increase the world's electric vehicle ownership from 1 million units (in 2015) to 2 million units.

In addition, Tesla has a very big advantage - brands, they almost do not spend money for advertising, because Silicon Valley "Iron Man" Musk is a gold sign, and this gold medal's ability to attract gold in the Model 3 booking Revealed. Without knowing when it will be possible to tell the car and what the car is doing, 400,000 users have spent $1,000 booking the Model 3.

Chadima said: "Tesla has this magic, it knows how to direct the user's soul."

Although the price is only 35,000 US dollars, but Model 3 is still able to gain access to 5 adults, and its cruising range has reached 215 miles (approximately 346 km). In addition, it is equipped with a large number of the most advanced technologies, and there is potential for automated driving in the future.

According to Lei Fengnet, more than 90% of the 400,000 orders for Model 3 are new customers. 31-year-old consultant Matthew Pirkowski has been watching Tesla for many years, but he has not been able to decide to replace his BMW with the $100,000 Model S. After Model 3 was released, he did not hesitate to place an order. "While my BMW is good, Tesla is what I really want."

Musk's Commitment: Some Realized, Some Bounced

As a busy man who spends two flowers on time, Musk likes to set aggressive deadlines.

In May last year, he said that the Model 3 will enter volume production in July 2017, and on July 28, Tesla will formally deliver the first 30 new vehicles.

Last March, Musk stated that Tesla will double the number of supercharged stations by the end of 2017. At the time, Tesla had a total of 3,600 supercharger stations, and this number has now risen to 6,050. Together with the construction schedule, this year, the number of supercharged stations will reach 7,000.

Last May, Musk stated that the Fremont plant will produce 100,000-200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017. However, judging from the current capacity, the Model 3 that can drive down the production line this year may not exceed 100,000 units. After all, it will only increase its monthly production capacity to 20,000 units by the end of the year.

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