News of subsidies for new energy vehicles has spread throughout the new energy vehicle industry. It is reported that, especially for products with a cruising range of less than 150 kilometers, the subsidy will be zero, and the subsidy will also affect the models with more than 70% of sales.

The new energy vehicle subsidy policy has become the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of all new energy vehicles. Although this is a fact of fact, the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2018 has been accelerated and the details have changed. It is rumored that the auto manufacturing industry and the participants in the upstream and downstream industry chains are still battling.

At present, there are drafts for new energy vehicle subsidies in 2018. According to a manuscript of the subsidy program that the Economic Observer reported, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will accelerate in 2018. The important point is that the subsidy for products with a range of 150 kilometers or less for new energy vehicles will be zero. "There are some differences in the several programs disclosed, but the core content is the same: it is to subsidize high energy density subsidies. In the final analysis, the new subsidy policy has made significant changes in the policy support for battery energy density. Only products with higher energy density will enjoy high subsidies. The technical route of (power battery) lithium iron phosphate is difficult to achieve for high energy density, which means that the entire battery industry will be able to concentrate on ternary materials. Battery technology transformation.” A person in charge of a domestic power battery supplier analyzed the reporter.

The game of the acceleration of the subsidies for new energy vehicles and the changes in subsidy rules have given different roles in new energy auto companies a different mentality. If the subsidy policy is determined to be implemented, this change will “precisely” crack down on the production of small electric vehicles, while new energy auto companies that intend to “make subsidies and earn points” but have no technical content will be eliminated quickly; The policy approach to encourage large-capacity electric vehicles in disguise will also have an impact on the development of new energy vehicle manufacturers, power battery suppliers, and even new energy vehicle technology routes.

“Subsidy retreat will affect sales of more than 70% of the models, such a large amount is precisely China's most mainstream (new energy vehicles), suddenly retreat to zero, the company's production rhythm is all disrupted. Many production It is a very catastrophic change to plan to completely reinvent the situation. (About the country's new energy vehicle subsidy policy) There is a break every three years, there is no continuity of policy, which makes the company very difficult." In Sanya Finance In the international forum, the theme forum of “The Road to Innovation in the Automotive Industry under the New Consumption Ecology”, Yin Chengliang, director of the Intelligent Network Innovation Electric Vehicle Innovation Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, expressed his rhetoric but frankly expressed the above viewpoint.

In this regard, Huang Yonghe, a senior expert at the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, revealed that the relevant departments are also considering introducing a toolkit supported by the new energy vehicle policy, and supporting new energy vehicles in terms of taxation. For example, a new income tax can be obtained for the purchase of new energy vehicles. Policy support such as deductions.

According to the manuscript of this 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy program, the program has divided the sub-indicators of pure electric passenger cars, new energy buses, new energy trucks and special vehicles in more detail. The cruising range of the cruising range is finer, and the energy density requirement has been further improved. The energy consumption coefficient sub-file subsidy is also proposed.

Among them, the subsidy quota for new energy passenger vehicles will be re-divided according to the driving mileage: the threshold for driving mileage will be increased to 150 kilometers, that is, the original subsidy of 20,000 yuan for 100-150 kilometers will be canceled, 150-200 kilometers. The subsidy will also be reduced from 36,000 to 20,000 yuan. At the same time, the binning was adjusted from the original 3 files to 5 files, and the reversing plan was continuously refined and more targeted. “The new subsidy policy is indeed not like the 'one-size-fits-all' subsidies in the past, but the technology of the products has risen and fallen. The plan may be announced soon. The most likely approach is to accelerate the subsidies for low-end products. The subsidy rate may fall by more than 40%; however, for the products whose cruising range meets the requirements, the subsidy amount will not fall, but the person in charge of the relevant department of a new energy vehicle state-owned enterprise told the reporter.

Although the policy has not yet been introduced, the dispute has begun to change the rules of the new subsidy policy. The new new energy vehicle subsidy for the upgrade of the cruising range requirements means that the requirements for battery energy density have changed, and such policy adjustment will not only bring fluctuations to the market, but also bring adjustments to the new energy vehicle technology route. .

According to public data, in the first ten months of this year, the cumulative sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles in China was 300,000 units. Among them, in terms of product structure, the cumulative sales of A00-class pure electric vehicles in the first 10 months was 197,000 units, accounting for pure The overall sales of electric vehicles is 66%. If the new energy subsidy policy is implemented in accordance with the draft plan disclosed above, the national and local subsidies for A00-class pure electric vehicle products will be greatly reduced, and it is expected that the subsidy amount will be reduced by 50%.

Undoubtedly, as a key layout product for new energy automobile manufacturers, A00-class pure electric vehicles will suffer a “concentration strike” in the new round of subsidy policies, but in fact these products are not technologically backward products. "If this is the case, the price increase of (terminal) is an irreversible trend. In order to ensure sales volume, it is estimated that manufacturers will subsidize part of the amount or choose a small profit." Automotive industry analyst Zhang Zhiqiang believes that such changes may require enterprises behind such changes. Pay the bill.

For this set of subsidy policies, all parties in the industry reacted differently. Some traditional car companies believe that the accelerated subsidy and continuous refinement of subsidies is the performance of new energy vehicles in the market, and some new entrants of cross-border vehicles are concerned about the impact of this policy change on the progress of financing. “This is equivalent to encouraging large-capacity electric vehicles in disguise. Internet-based car manufacturers benefit from it, but it is contrary to the consumption demand of small-capacity electric vehicles in the short-distance travel of cities. Moreover, it is inevitable that there will be empty holes in the implementation of the policy. Adding a plug-in battery to the trunk of the car can increase it to 250 kilometers (the cruising range) without changing the structure. It can be rented to the user for licensing. Will there be any car companies doing this?” Li Yanwei, member of the Expert Committee of China Automobile Dealers Association I raised my own doubts about this.

"The electric vehicle policy should not be changed, which will disrupt the electric car enterprise plan and production pace. For example, such changes will make it impossible for companies to install batteries in the existing models, including the requirements for battery components. It has changed." Yin Chengliang expressed his concern.

Indeed, the technical adjustments brought about by policy adjustments and the peripheral suppliers such as upstream equipment and downstream batteries have far-reaching effects, and the impact on battery manufacturers is enormous.

Some analysts believe that the change in subsidies for new energy vehicles will cause new energy vehicle companies to shift their cost pressures to power battery manufacturers with weaker bargaining power. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the price of power batteries has been generally lowered by more than 20%, but the pressure on raw material prices has not decreased. In addition, power battery manufacturers must adjust battery specifications, PACK plans, and even material formulations based on policy criteria.

"From the perspective of the power battery, the country's subsidy is the most stressful for the core parts and components enterprises. Not only the upstream materials are rising, but the downstream terminals are returning to us. The pressure on us is relatively large. We will take the motor from the motor. Take measures to reduce the cost of the battery in all aspects of the system." In this regard, Zhong Mengguang, vice president of Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd., said at the 4th China New Energy Automobile Annual Conference. But another obvious problem is that the cost reduction involves the synergy of the industry chain, which is obviously not possible with the cooperation of the power battery system and the OEM.

From a macro perspective, the technical route of the entire new energy vehicle power battery market may be subject to deep adjustment due to changes in policy support. The current requirements for increasing the energy density of batteries have been proposed in all versions of the 2018 New Energy Subsidy Policy. For example, in terms of battery energy density, the 2018 subsidy standard has two adjustment directions, one is to increase the subsidy threshold from 90Wh/kg to 95Wh/kg, and the other is to keep the threshold unchanged but to re-adjust the subsidy factor. "The change in the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles can also be regarded as another division of the power battery technology route and the benefit cake. The technical route of lithium iron phosphate battery will decline, and the ternary material battery technology will be favored. In addition, the increase in battery energy density requirements will cause the battery energy density to be three times that of the existing lithium battery. The above-mentioned power battery supplier said that the analysis.

In addition, the subsidy policy does not involve fuel cell vehicles, which is seen as a signal that the country strongly supports fuel cell technology. In this regard, the scent of sensitive capital markets and car companies has been accelerating the deployment of fuel cell technology and products.

In fact, this change in subsidy policy can be seen as a signal that the new energy vehicle enters the post-subsidy era, and it also makes the policy layer aware of the importance of establishing a long-term mechanism for new energy vehicles. Huang Yonghe revealed that “the government is studying the establishment of a “policy toolkit” based on non-subsidy policies to establish a policy system for the post-subsidy era.”

Earlier, Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, also revealed that the Ministry of Finance, together with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau and other departments, is establishing a set of fiscal and taxation policy systems for subsidies for new energy vehicles. The subsidies range from individual policies to policy combinations. The policy system has been continuously improved.

It is reported that the topic of the new energy policy toolkit has been officially launched, and the three companies from the China Automotive Industry Center, the China Automotive Engineering Society, and the China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Association jointly led the study. The research includes tax support policies, follow-up subsidy policy research in 2020, traffic differentiation policy, charging infrastructure support policy and double-point policy, and business model research.

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