Last week (January 30 - February 5) The domestic steel market fluctuated in a narrow range. The performance of all varieties was slightly different. The prices of building materials and medium plates all rose. The prices of hot rolled steel were basically stable, and the cold rolled prices dropped slightly. Rise and fall, with limited range.

As of February 2, the “My Steel” composite index was 153.5 points, an increase of 0.26% on a week-to-week basis; the flat steel index was 134.8 points, a 0.31% increase on a week-on-week basis, and the long products index was 174.9 points, an increase of 0.22% on a week-to-week basis.

In terms of construction steel, as of last Thursday, the highest price of secondary rebar in China was 4,500 yuan/ton in Guiyang, and the lowest price was 4,010 yuan/ton in Jinan. Judging from the situation in various regions, prices in eastern China rose slightly, generally by RMB 20-40/tonne; in Central China, they also rose by RMB 20-40/ton; in South China, they rose by RMB 20-50/ton; in Southwest China, they rose by 10%. 20 yuan / ton; North China rose 50-70 yuan / ton; Northeast prices were basically stable; Northwest prices rose 20-50 yuan / ton.

According to my steel survey, traders currently have different expectations for price adjustments. There are arguments for bullishness, bearishness, and bullishness. The proportion of each viewpoint is half a catty, and it is difficult to distinguish between the outcome and the outcome. In terms of hot-rolled coils, the price of hot-rolled coils in the domestic market remained stable during the last week, and some of the merchants saw an uptick before the holiday and the overall price rose slightly. At present, the highest price of hot rolled coils in Kunming is 4460 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Tianjin is 4120 yuan/ton.

For steel mills, from the January and February price adjustment policies of the domestic mainstream hot-rolling mills, the steel price policy in January has been raised mainly and slightly, and major steel mills have seen slight increases in their willingness and signs in February. . From the signals released by domestic hot-rolling mills' price policies, it is likely that the short-term market price will slightly increase.

In the steel mills continued to cut prices and end-users to resume procurement led by the situation in January-February steel mills have improved. Taking HRC as an example, Baosteel, Angang, Shougang, and Wuhan Iron and Steel and other four major steel companies basically completed the January contract, and at the same time Baosteel’s three other steel mills also had an overshoot phenomenon in February, which was mainly due to partial contracts in January. Due to carryover.

According to a survey of 46 steel mills and 133 traders in 15 cities in China including Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou and Xi'an, the “My Steel Network” shows that the market is steady and strong this week. Circulators and steelmakers are bearish on the thread market at 20%, consolidating at 52%, and rising at 20%; bearish on the coil market at 5%, consolidating at 69%, and rising at 26%.

Regarding the recent trend of steel prices, Huang Jiayi, an analyst at “My Steel”, believes that considering that most downstream steel companies have not yet resumed production, the market’s substantial turnover is relatively low, and the market price continues to rise slightly. As far as the current market is concerned, a lot of negative factors coexist, and it is unlikely that the short-term steel prices will rise or fall sharply. If there is a subsequent phase of transactional release and policy favorability, steel prices may rise.

Regarding the trend of steel prices in February, the latest report from the Nisshin Shinkansen project predicts that demand for end-users in the Chinese lunar calendar will have fallen to the lowest level at the end of December. However, the demand for the Chinese Lunar Calendar in January and February will recover, but it will It is at a low level during the year, and in terms of real transactions, the market can enter normal business after the first lunar month and the characteristics of the peak seasons before and after the Qingming will be gradually reflected. Therefore, in February alone, demand recovery will remain extremely slow. The difficult process has limited effect on prices.

Some analysts pointed out that after a long period of sluggish market conditions in the fourth quarter, if the demand can be successfully launched, the steel market will surely rise in the next 1-2 months. Taking into account factors such as the recent sharp decline in steel mill profits in the fourth quarter of last year, loosening of credit policy at the beginning of the year, signs of improvement in downstream orders, and low output of crude steel, there is a high probability that the dominant steelmaker will increase prices in March. The previous range is expected to be 100-150 yuan / ton, while the cold-based products will be relatively low gains.