The industrial economy operates in a stable and rapid growth interval. From a macro perspective, since the beginning of this year, China’s economic growth is undergoing an orderly transition from policy stimulus to autonomous growth, and continues to develop in the expected direction of macro-control. It showed a good pattern of rapid production growth, simultaneous improvement of benefits, and steady progress in industrial restructuring.

From January to August 2011, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 14.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was 14.4% in the first quarter, 14% in the second quarter, and 14% and 13.5% respectively in the two months of July and August. There are no worrying ups and downs. Overall, the operation of the industrial economy has achieved an orderly transition from restorative rapid growth to smooth operation and modest growth.

The main problems are:

First, the cumulative growth rate of production and sales has decreased compared with the growth rate in the same period of 2010. In the first half of the year, the cumulative growth rate of total industrial output value increased by 0.42 percentage point, and the cumulative increase in sales output value decreased by 0.59 percentage points; since April this year, the growth rate of production and sales has been slowly decreasing month by month. The cumulative increase in production and sales in the first three quarters also decreased by 3.34 percentage points and 2.56 percentage points compared with the end of the first quarter.

Secondly, the increase in cost caused the increase in profits to be lower than the increase in sales. The profit rate of main business income and the profit margin of cost are all lower than those in the same period of last year. In particular, the profitability of overcapacity industries has declined even more significantly. From January to March this year, the total profit of the electrical industry increased by 34.03% year-on-year, and the increase in profits was about 2 percentage points higher than the current increase in production and sales. However, since April, the growth rate of total profits began to narrow, resulting in a lower growth rate than production and sales: 1 The total profit in April was up by 29.81% year-on-year, which was lower than the growth rate of production and sales by about 2 percentage points. The total profit from January to May increased by 25.36% year-on-year, which was lower than the growth rate of production and sales by about 5.7 percentage points; the total profit realized by the electrician industry from January to June was 108.36 billion. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.03%. The increase in profit was nearly 8.2% lower than the increase in sales during the same period. From January to August, the total profit realized was 145.634 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.96%, and the increase in profits was about 11 percentage points lower than the increase in sales during the same period. The increase in profit growth since April, which is lower than the increase in production and sales, has become increasingly evident and ever-expanding.

The reasons for the decrease in profit growth are closely related to the excessive increase in operating expenses and financial expenses (mainly interest expenses) of the company: Taking the first eight months of the year as an example, the main business income of the entire industry increased by 29.47%, but the operating expenses increased. 47.03%, financial expenses increased by 41.45% (among which interest expenses increased by 46.89%); also according to companies, the decrease in profit growth rate and the increase in production cost (including the price of raw materials, labor and other factors, management costs, financial costs, etc.) However, the sales price of a product cannot be related to a corresponding increase.

Judging from the changes in indicators reflecting the quality of economic operations, profit margins, cost-cost margins, and total asset contribution rates in the first half of the year have all increased month by month, and the liquidity turnover rate has accelerated. And the asset-liability ratio is also at a reasonable level. However, from the second half of the year, the main business income profit margin, cost-cost profit ratio and total asset contribution rate have declined, reflecting the decline in industry profitability.

From January to August 2011, the main business income profit margin, cost expense profit ratio and total asset contribution rate have decreased by 0.35, 0.40 and 0.26 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of 2010, especially in some industries with overcapacity, profit margins The decline was even more: From January to August of this year, profit margins of main business income of motor manufacturing, micro-motor and other motor manufacturing, and transformer rectifier transformer manufacturing were respectively decreased by 0.69, 0.49, and 1.02 percentage points from the same period of 2010.

This situation made us have to be more cautious about the forecast and estimation of the entire industry's fourth-quarter and annual production and operation situation. It is estimated that the growth rate of the electrical industry in this year will be 20% to 25%, and the profit growth may be 15%. about.

Issues needing attention: First, the United States is forcing the renminbi to appreciate, which will lead to a decline in the international competitiveness of China's export of electrical products. Second, loans for SMEs are difficult, private interest on borrowing is too high, and the Wenzhou lending crisis has initially taken shape, which has aroused the attention of top central leadership. Third, the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis has begun to show. Fourth, the state has promoted the transformation of economic development methods, promoted the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, and introduced higher requirements for enterprises. V. The impact of inflation is clearly reflected at the corporate level, and the production costs of enterprises have risen. Sixth, the situation of serious excess production capacity in the entire industry is the root cause of vicious competition.

The basic situation of the transformer industry Based on the overall operation of the power industry, China's transformer industry mainly performs the following:

There are about 1,500 transformer manufacturers in China. There are nearly 30 manufacturers of transformers with more than 500kV, about 50 companies with 220kV and above, and about 130 manufacturers with 110kV and below in the statistical scope.

Overcapacity is serious. In the past three years, the annual demand for transformers in China is around 1.3 billion kVA. China's transformer industry has a production capacity of about 3 billion kVA, of which Shen, West, and Baosan Group have a capacity of about 500 million kVA. In the past few years, China’s power construction has been developing rapidly, and the demand for transformers has increased rapidly. As a result, a considerable number of domestic transformer enterprises have rapidly expanded their production capacity, and even the production capacity of individual enterprises has doubled. Since 2009, the national power construction has slowed down, and the demand for domestic transformers has decreased. In particular, State Grid Corporation and South China Net Company purchased transformers through centralized tendering, which resulted in unprecedented fierce competition among enterprises.

In addition, due to the fierce competition in the domestic market, the bid price is lower than the cost price, leading some companies to start overseas routes, export products, and build factories abroad. In addition, many companies have begun to develop new, energy-saving, environmentally friendly, intelligent products.

However, the general economic benefits of domestic transformer companies have been significantly reduced, and many companies are at the edge of losses or losses. A large number of distribution transformer enterprises have even experienced the situation of sacrificing product quality at the expense of malicious competition (in the third quarter, the profit margin dropped by 46% year-on-year).

In addition, the quality of transformer products has decreased and the accident rate has increased. The qualified rate of distribution transformers in the country is only 70%. The accident rate of transformers on the Internet is on the rise. There have been many accidental transformers in the last five years and the safety of the power grids has been threatened.

Several kinds of unfavorable phenomena that affect product quality: “Aluminum replaces copper”, contract fraud, aluminum coils can be used as transformer coils, “reuse of secondary sheets”, magnetic performance, surface insulation, loss, excessive noise, and transformer capacity” Lack of catty short two."

The related suggestions are as follows: 1. The relevant national departments, federations, associations, and enterprises shall work together to change the winning bid from the low price to the product's lowest quality cost guaranteed price (range) and above. Second, strengthen national and industry supervision and management of product quality. Third, strengthen the self-discipline of enterprises, safeguard the honors of enterprises and industries, and resolutely put an end to bad behaviors such as shoddy.